Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Trevor Smith
89%
11%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
33
Age
Δ 1y
33
29-9
Career record
Δ 15 pp
16-10
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Leites: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 3 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Trevor Smith
36
Sig strikes landed
25
67
Sig strikes attempted
56
56
Total strikes landed
56
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
224s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Thales Leites
29-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner
W1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—