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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Jared Rosholt vs Daniel Omielanczuk

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson ·du Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jared Rosholt
Daniel Omielanczuk
52% 48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
15-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
20-8-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosholt: 34 sig / 3 TD · Omielanczuk: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jared Rosholt
Daniel Omielanczuk
26
Sig strikes landed
42
72
Sig strikes attempted
73
44
Total strikes landed
59
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jared Rosholt

15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
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Blue corner
W1

Daniel Omielanczuk

20-8-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
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