Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
John Howard
Ryan LaFlare
49%
51%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
25-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
15-3
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Howard: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
LaFlare: 64 sig / 4 TD
John Howard
Ryan LaFlare
32
Sig strikes landed
40
78
Sig strikes attempted
111
44
Total strikes landed
79
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.9
5.7
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
157s
Control time
235s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
John Howard
"Doomsday"
25-13
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—
Blue corner
W3
Ryan LaFlare
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—