Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Tatsuya Kawajiri
38%
62%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
38-23
Career record
Δ 12 pp
37-11-2
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guida: 47 sig / 3 TD ·
Kawajiri: 19 sig / 1 TD
Clay Guida
Tatsuya Kawajiri
24
Sig strikes landed
28
64
Sig strikes attempted
63
47
Total strikes landed
53
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
344s
Control time
255s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38-23
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
37-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—