Main
Heavyweight
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Roy Nelson
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
·du Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Roy Nelson
87%
13%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
38
Age
Δ 0y
38
34-11-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-15
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nogueira: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 19 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Roy Nelson
31
Sig strikes landed
24
56
Sig strikes attempted
56
42
Total strikes landed
38
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
94s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
L
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
—
Blue corner
L2
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—