Main
Light Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier vs Dan Henderson
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
Dan Henderson
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 8y
44
23-3
Career record
Δ 20 pp
33-15
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Cormier: 50 sig / 3 TD ·
Henderson: 6 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
Dan Henderson
47
Sig strikes landed
24
92
Sig strikes attempted
70
78
Total strikes landed
35
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
246s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W1
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
33-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—