🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Renan Barao vs TJ Dillashaw
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Renan Barao
TJ Dillashaw
85%
15%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
35-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
19-5
W7
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Barao: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Dillashaw: 140 sig / 0 TD
Renan Barao
TJ Dillashaw
63
Sig strikes landed
56
155
Sig strikes attempted
140
79
Total strikes landed
75
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
99s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Renan Barao
"The Baron"
35-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W1
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—