Main
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler vs Jake Ellenberger
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Jake Ellenberger
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
30-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
31-16
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lawler: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 29 sig / 2 TD
Robbie Lawler
Jake Ellenberger
40
Sig strikes landed
39
92
Sig strikes attempted
107
53
Total strikes landed
44
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
12s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
30-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
L1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—