Prelims1
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson vs Katsunori Kikuno
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Katsunori Kikuno
57%
43%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 10"
66"
30
Age
Δ 2y
33
27-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
25-8-2
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ferguson: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Kikuno: 22 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Katsunori Kikuno
34
Sig strikes landed
33
82
Sig strikes attempted
100
50
Total strikes landed
41
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
50s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1
Katsunori Kikuno
25-8-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—