Prelims1
Lightweight
Michael Chiesa vs Francisco Trinaldo
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Francisco Trinaldo
63%
37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
26
Age
Δ 9y
36
21-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
29-9
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Chiesa: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Trinaldo: 13 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Francisco Trinaldo
26
Sig strikes landed
21
70
Sig strikes attempted
48
51
Total strikes landed
32
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—