Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jamie Varner
James Krause
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
21-12-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
28-10
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Varner: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Krause: 22 sig / 0 TD
Jamie Varner
James Krause
53
Sig strikes landed
58
125
Sig strikes attempted
125
65
Total strikes landed
78
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jamie Varner
21-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L1
James Krause
"The"
28-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—