Prelims1
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta vs Mitch Clarke
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Mitch Clarke
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
15-7-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-5
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Iaquinta: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Clarke: 8 sig / 0 TD
Al Iaquinta
Mitch Clarke
44
Sig strikes landed
33
102
Sig strikes attempted
93
64
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
122s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mitch Clarke
"Danger Zone"
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—