Main
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki vs Francisco Rivera
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Francisco Rivera
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
30
Age
Δ 2y
33
22-11-2
Career record
Δ 0 pp
12-7
W4
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mizugaki: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 41 sig / 3 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Francisco Rivera
62
Sig strikes landed
49
136
Sig strikes attempted
128
83
Total strikes landed
56
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
191s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W3
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—