Main
Welterweight
Chad Laprise vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy
·Colisee Pepsi
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Chad Laprise
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
61%
39%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Laprise: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Aubin-Mercier: 45 sig / 2 TD
Chad Laprise
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
36
Sig strikes landed
34
73
Sig strikes attempted
73
53
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chad Laprise
"The Disciple"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25