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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Sarah Kaufman vs Leslie Smith

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy ·Colisee Pepsi
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sarah Kaufman
Leslie Smith
83% 17%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kaufman: 202 sig / 1 TD · Smith: 79 sig / 0 TD
Sarah Kaufman
Leslie Smith
43
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
78
78
Total strikes landed
62
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
209s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sarah Kaufman

18-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-0
Blue corner

Leslie Smith

"The Peacemaker"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32