Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
KJ Noons
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
21-12-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stout: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Noons: 7 sig / 0 TD
Sam Stout
KJ Noons
70
Sig strikes landed
60
167
Sig strikes attempted
146
82
Total strikes landed
66
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
111s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
2%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
21-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
Blue corner
W1
KJ Noons
"King"
14-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—