Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Patrick Cote
Kyle Noke
52%
48%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
34
24-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
23-10-1
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cote: 33 sig / 3 TD ·
Noke: 50 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Cote
Kyle Noke
23
Sig strikes landed
31
45
Sig strikes attempted
61
43
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
24-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Kyle Noke
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
W
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—