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Prelims1 Welterweight

Thiago Perpetuo vs Kenny Robertson

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 ·Ginasio Nelio Dias
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Thiago Perpetuo
Kenny Robertson
55% 45%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
9-5-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Perpetuo: 0 sig / 1 TD · Robertson: 9 sig / 1 TD
Thiago Perpetuo
Kenny Robertson
34
Sig strikes landed
32
63
Sig strikes attempted
57
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
98s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
42%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Thiago Perpetuo

"Bodao"
9-5-1
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
L1

Kenny Robertson

15-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
L UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—