Prelims1
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga vs Scott Jorgensen
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2
·Ginasio Nelio Dias
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Scott Jorgensen
81%
19%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
23-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
15-13
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Formiga: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Jorgensen: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Scott Jorgensen
34
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
73
58
Total strikes landed
53
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.9
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
189s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jussier Formiga
23-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L2
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
15-13
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—