Prelims1
Middleweight
Ronny Markes vs Thiago Santos
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2
·Ginasio Nelio Dias
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ronny Markes
Thiago Santos
76%
24%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
17-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-12
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Markes: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 7 sig / 0 TD
Ronny Markes
Thiago Santos
31
Sig strikes landed
35
62
Sig strikes attempted
115
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
232s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ronny Markes
17-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
L1
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
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