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Fabio Maldonado vs Gian Villante

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 ·Ginasio Nelio Dias
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Fabio Maldonado
Gian Villante
70% 30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
24-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-14
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maldonado: 132 sig / 0 TD · Villante: 33 sig / 3 TD
Fabio Maldonado
Gian Villante
70
Sig strikes landed
50
100
Sig strikes attempted
110
80
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Fabio Maldonado

"Caipira de Aco"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—
Blue corner
W1

Gian Villante

18-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—