Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mirsad Bektic
Chas Skelly
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
23
Age
Δ 6y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Bektic: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Skelly: 19 sig / 0 TD
Mirsad Bektic
Chas Skelly
33
Sig strikes landed
40
70
Sig strikes attempted
84
50
Total strikes landed
58
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mirsad Bektic
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29