Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Dustin Ortiz
Ray Borg
56%
44%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
25
Age
Δ 5y
21
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ortiz: 46 sig / 2 TD ·
Borg: 12 sig / 5 TD
Dustin Ortiz
Ray Borg
43
Sig strikes landed
40
96
Sig strikes attempted
80
69
Total strikes landed
53
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
241s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Ortiz
19-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
Ray Borg
"The Tazmexican Devil"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21