Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Jack May
80%
20%
Why
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
May: 5 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Jack May
36
Sig strikes landed
29
66
Sig strikes attempted
65
58
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Jack May
"The Outlaw"
0-0
Career record
Height
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
33