Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Estevan Payan
Alex White
39%
61%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
26
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Payan: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
White: 20 sig / 0 TD
Estevan Payan
Alex White
27
Sig strikes landed
40
64
Sig strikes attempted
77
40
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
121s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Estevan Payan
"El Terrible"
16-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
Blue corner
Alex White
"The Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26