Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Pat Healy
78%
22%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
31
35-18
Career record
Δ 7 pp
34-24
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Masvidal: 69 sig / 1 TD ·
Healy: 32 sig / 2 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Pat Healy
47
Sig strikes landed
40
120
Sig strikes attempted
113
67
Total strikes landed
62
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.8
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
148s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
L2
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
34-24
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—