Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Caio Magalhaes
Luke Zachrich
58%
42%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
W2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magalhaes: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Zachrich: 3 sig / 0 TD
Caio Magalhaes
Luke Zachrich
29
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
58
48
Total strikes landed
49
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
228s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Caio Magalhaes
"Hellboy"
11-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
Blue corner
Luke Zachrich
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32