Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Seth Baczynski
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
23-16
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-14
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alves: 116 sig / 0 TD ·
Baczynski: 90 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Alves
Seth Baczynski
48
Sig strikes landed
34
115
Sig strikes attempted
100
52
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W1
Seth Baczynski
"The Polish Pistola"
21-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—