Prelims1
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
·Amway Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Khabib Nurmagomedov
18%
82%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
33-17
Career record
Δ 34 pp
30-0
W5
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dos Anjos: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Nurmagomedov: 36 sig / 6 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Khabib Nurmagomedov
23
Sig strikes landed
44
71
Sig strikes attempted
88
37
Total strikes landed
71
0.4
Takedowns landed
3.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
7.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
33s
Control time
366s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
Blue corner
W5
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—