Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Yoel Romero
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
26
Age
Δ 11y
37
22-13
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-5
W5
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tavares: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Romero: 31 sig / 7 TD
Brad Tavares
Yoel Romero
47
Sig strikes landed
36
104
Sig strikes attempted
84
55
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
Blue corner
W3
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
14-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—