Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Edson Barboza
72%
28%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
37-17
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-14
W2
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cerrone: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Barboza: 28 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Edson Barboza
54
Sig strikes landed
54
124
Sig strikes attempted
126
51
Total strikes landed
53
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
33s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
W3
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—