Prelims1
Lightweight
Danny Castillo vs Charlie Brenneman
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
·Royal Farms Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Danny Castillo
Charlie Brenneman
49%
51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
17-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-9
L1
Current streak
L3
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Castillo: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Brenneman: 13 sig / 2 TD
Danny Castillo
Charlie Brenneman
29
Sig strikes landed
23
54
Sig strikes attempted
44
62
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
175s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
L3
Charlie Brenneman
"The Spaniard"
19-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—