Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Jessamyn Duke vs Bethe Correia
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
·Royal Farms Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jessamyn Duke
Bethe Correia
50%
50%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 9"
64"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
4-5
Career record
Δ 19 pp
12-6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Duke: 54 sig / 1 TD ·
Correia: 91 sig / 0 TD
Jessamyn Duke
Bethe Correia
71
Sig strikes landed
54
145
Sig strikes attempted
136
76
Total strikes landed
94
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jessamyn Duke
"The Gun"
4-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Bethe Correia
"Pitbull"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—