Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chris Beal
Patrick Williams
66%
34%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Beal: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Williams: 14 sig / 2 TD
Chris Beal
Patrick Williams
37
Sig strikes landed
35
75
Sig strikes attempted
77
54
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Beal
"Real Deal"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Patrick Williams
"The Animal"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33