Prelims1
Lightweight
Takanori Gomi vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
·Royal Farms Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takanori Gomi
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
82%
18%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
36
Age
Δ 0y
36
35-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
16-8-1
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gomi: 130 sig / 0 TD ·
Vallie-Flagg: 107 sig / 1 TD
Takanori Gomi
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
43
Sig strikes landed
44
113
Sig strikes attempted
117
59
Total strikes landed
67
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Takanori Gomi
"The Fireball Kid"
35-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
Blue corner
L1
Isaac Vallie-Flagg
16-8-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—