Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Tim Elliott
80%
20%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
30
Age
Δ 2y
27
28-9
Career record
Δ 18 pp
22-15-1
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Benavidez: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Elliott: 16 sig / 3 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Tim Elliott
53
Sig strikes landed
51
137
Sig strikes attempted
129
66
Total strikes landed
75
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joseph Benavidez
28-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—