Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Anthony Johnson
52%
48%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
18-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-7
W3
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Davis: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 45 sig / 0 TD
Phil Davis
Anthony Johnson
28
Sig strikes landed
26
78
Sig strikes attempted
63
55
Total strikes landed
44
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
22-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—