🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Glover Teixeira
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
·Royal Farms Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Glover Teixeira
82%
18%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
76"
27
Age
Δ 8y
34
29-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
34-9
W8
Current streak
W5
10
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jones: 138 sig / 3 TD ·
Teixeira: 53 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Glover Teixeira
92
Sig strikes landed
43
152
Sig strikes attempted
105
118
Total strikes landed
56
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
298s
Control time
12s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
10 fights · 10-0
Last 5
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
Blue corner
W5
Glover Teixeira
34-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—