Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luke Rockhold
Tim Boetsch
69%
31%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
17-6
Career record
Δ 11 pp
22-13
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rockhold: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Boetsch: 1 sig / 0 TD
Luke Rockhold
Tim Boetsch
28
Sig strikes landed
28
55
Sig strikes attempted
47
40
Total strikes landed
41
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
88s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Luke Rockhold
17-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—