Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Andre Fili
69%
31%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
22
Age
Δ 1y
24
28-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
26-13
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Holloway: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Fili: 44 sig / 3 TD
Max Holloway
Andre Fili
65
Sig strikes landed
67
164
Sig strikes attempted
152
67
Total strikes landed
73
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
85s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
Blue corner
W1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
26-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—