Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hatsu Hioki
Ivan Menjivar
77%
23%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 9"
64"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
29-11-2
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-13
L3
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hioki: 29 sig / 4 TD ·
Menjivar: 27 sig / 0 TD
Hatsu Hioki
Ivan Menjivar
37
Sig strikes landed
30
76
Sig strikes attempted
64
61
Total strikes landed
46
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
180s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Hatsu Hioki
29-11-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L2
Ivan Menjivar
"The Pride of El Salvador"
25-13
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—