Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Mitrione
Shawn Jordan
45%
55%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
36
Age
Δ 6y
29
12-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-9
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mitrione: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Jordan: 15 sig / 0 TD
Matt Mitrione
Shawn Jordan
25
Sig strikes landed
25
51
Sig strikes attempted
45
34
Total strikes landed
42
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
31s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Mitrione
12-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
L1
Shawn Jordan
"The Savage"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—