Prelims1
Welterweight
Kelvin Gastelum vs Rick Story
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Rick Story
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
22
Age
Δ 7y
30
22-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-9
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gastelum: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Story: 45 sig / 0 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Rick Story
39
Sig strikes landed
41
91
Sig strikes attempted
102
52
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
118s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—