Back to UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Prelims2 Flyweight

Will Campuzano vs Justin Scoggins

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler ·American Airlines Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Will Campuzano
Justin Scoggins
48% 52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
28
Age
Δ 6y
22
14-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5
L3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Campuzano: 4 sig / 0 TD · Scoggins: 61 sig / 6 TD
Will Campuzano
Justin Scoggins
25
Sig strikes landed
37
65
Sig strikes attempted
73
38
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
192s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
41%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Will Campuzano

14-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
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L UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
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L The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
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Blue corner
W1

Justin Scoggins

12-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
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