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Main Welterweight

Carlos Condit vs Tyron Woodley

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler ·American Airlines Center

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Tyron Woodley
73% 27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
33-14
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-7-1
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Condit: 13 sig / 0 TD · Woodley: 14 sig / 3 TD
Carlos Condit
Tyron Woodley
53
Sig strikes landed
45
130
Sig strikes attempted
92
78
Total strikes landed
54
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
100s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Carlos Condit

"The Natural Born Killer"
33-14
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
L UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
W UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
W UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
Blue corner
W1

Tyron Woodley

"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
W UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar