🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks vs Robbie Lawler
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Robbie Lawler
58%
42%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
18-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
31-16
L1
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Hendricks: 158 sig / 2 TD ·
Lawler: 150 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
Robbie Lawler
48
Sig strikes landed
47
131
Sig strikes attempted
105
72
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
205s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W3
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—