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Main Welterweight

Jake Shields vs Hector Lombard

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler ·American Airlines Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Jake Shields
Hector Lombard
53% 47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
35
Age
Δ 1y
36
32-9-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
35-10-1
W3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Shields: 4 sig / 0 TD · Lombard: 27 sig / 5 TD
Jake Shields
Hector Lombard
36
Sig strikes landed
41
104
Sig strikes attempted
105
67
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
183s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Jake Shields

32-9-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
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W UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
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W UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
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L UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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L UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1

Hector Lombard

35-10-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
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L UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
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W UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
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L UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—