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Prelims1 Welterweight

George Sullivan vs Mike Rhodes

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson ·United Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
George Sullivan
Mike Rhodes
55% 45%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
33
Age
Δ 9y
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sullivan: 61 sig / 2 TD · Rhodes: 51 sig / 2 TD
George Sullivan
Mike Rhodes
36
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
81
53
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
155s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

George Sullivan

"The Silencer"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner

Mike Rhodes

"Biggie"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24