Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Walt Harris
Nikita Krylov
12%
88%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
31
Age
Δ 9y
22
13-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
31-12
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Harris: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Krylov: 11 sig / 0 TD
Walt Harris
Nikita Krylov
24
Sig strikes landed
32
49
Sig strikes attempted
81
33
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
93s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Walt Harris
"The Big Ticket"
13-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—