Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daron Cruickshank
Mike Rio
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
18-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-6
L1
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cruickshank: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Rio: 10 sig / 0 TD
Daron Cruickshank
Mike Rio
35
Sig strikes landed
27
81
Sig strikes attempted
63
52
Total strikes landed
42
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
139s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
18-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
L2
Mike Rio
"The Wolverine"
10-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—